John Barker, Director General of the Organisation, presented last December 2024 preliminary results of an exceptional study overviewing the Vine and Wine Sector over this century, also marking the 100 years of the OIV. This analysis covers data collected from 79 wine producing countries. Barker also introduced the new OIV strategic plan, which will be available some time in 2025. Giorgio Delgrosso, OIV head of the Statistic department also presented the first estimates on wine production in 2024.
The OIV is the intergovernmental organisation of a scientific and technical nature of recognised competence for its work concerning vines, wine, wine-based beverages, table grapes, raisins and other vine-based products. It is composed of 51 Member States.
In 2024, world wine production is expected to decline further from the low volume of last year. Climatic challenges across both hemispheres are once again major contributors to the reduced global production volume. Based on comprehensive data from 29 countries representing 85 percent of global production in 2023 global wine production for 2024 is estimated between 224 mhL to 235 mhL, according to the OIV World Wine Production Outlook 2024.
Globally, 2024 appears to be a re-run of 2023 with a range of weather events affecting wine production volumes around the globe, exacerbated by economic and market circumstances. There have been relative changes in production between countries compared to the previous year, but the net result is a total production 2% lower than 2023.
Low production volume in the European Union is expected. French Wine recorded the most significant decrease in production compared to the previous year, largely due to challenging weather conditions across the country. Italian Wine production recovered slightly from 2023’s very low volume, to become the largest world producer once again. Generally volumes across Europe were below average, with only Portugal and Hungary recording average or above average harvest volumes. First forecasts from the USA indicate an average production volume for 2024 slightly below 2023 levels. In the Southern Hemisphere, wine production volumes are expected to remain low in 2024, again due mainly to climatic conditions, marking the lowest output in two decades. This forecast signals a 2% decline from the already low 2023 volume, and a drop of 13% reduction against the ten-year average. This positions 2024 production as potentially the smallest global output since 1961 (220 mhl).
In the Southern Hemisphere, key wine-producing nations experienced significant drops: Australia, Argentina, Chile, South Africa, and Brazil recorded production volumes between 4% and 21% below their five-year averages. The European Union presented an equally challenging landscape, with nearly all countries experiencing below-average harvest volumes. France, the leading producer in 2023, experienced the largest fall in production, with its low output substantially influencing the worldwide wine supply. Only a small group of regions, notably the United States and several Eastern European countries including Hungary, Georgia, and Moldova enjoyed more favourable climatic conditions, achieving average or above-average production volumes. As with 2023, extreme or atypical meteorological events are the key influence on global production, with early frosts, heavy rainfall, and prolonged drought dramatically impacting vineyard productivity.
This underscores the wine industry’s increasing vulnerability to climate variability, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies and resilient viticultural practices (see our selection of Organic, Biodynamic, Vegan and Natural Wines) in the face of escalating environmental uncertainties. At the same time, a second consecutive year of reduced production, occurring within a market context of decreasing global consumption and high inventory levels, could contribute to a market equilibrium mitigating the immediate economic impact of reduced production for some regions or producers.
Italy to regain the top Spot from France
In 2024, Italy is estimated to be the largest wine producer in the EU and the world, with an estimated wine production of 41.0 mhl, which is an increase of 2.7 mhl (+7%) from 2023. This reflects a partial recovery from the notably low production in 2023, which saw the smallest production since the historically low harvest in 2017. However, the 2024 volume is still 13% below the five-year average. Adverse weather conditions affected the majority of Italian wine regions, most particularly in the North where a significant part of the vineyard was impacted by hailstorms.
France is expected to produce 36.9 mhl in 2024, marking a significant drop of 10.9 mhl (-23%) from 2023, and 16% below its five-year average, putting France in second place. This is estimated to be the lowest production since the historically low record in 2017 (36.6 mhl). The significant decline in French wine production for 2024 is again attributable to adverse weather conditions across the country from flowering to harvest, impacting all wine regions, with issues like continuous rain, disease outbreaks, poor flowering, droughts and hailstorms reducing yields. This situation is linked to vineyard abandonments in regions such as Bordeaux, Languedoc-Roussillon, and the Rhône Valley and a challenging year for Champagne.
Spain maintains its position as the third-largest wine producer in the EU, with an estimated vinified production volume of 33.6 mhl in 2024. This figure represents an increase of 5.2 mhl (+18%) relative to 2023, though it remains 4% below the last five-year average. The rise, driven by relatively positive harvests in Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura, is a partial recovery from the severe droughts of 2023, but ongoing water stress continues to challenge wine production.
Several countries within the EU expect a decrease in production compared to 2023. Germany (8.1 mhl, -6% / 2023) is experiencing declines, with figures falling below their five-year averages by -5%. Germany’s wine production in 2024 faces challenges reminiscent of the low 2017 harvest, with late spring frosts and heavy summer rains severely impacting yields. Portugal has an estimated 2024 wine production volume of 6.9 mhl (-8% / 2023); this level positions Portugal as one of the few EU countries achieving a harvest volume consistent with its five-year average (+0.2%). Austria (2.2 mhl, -9% / 2023) is projected to be 12% and 17% below the five-year average. Hungary with 2.3 mhl expects a decrease of 7% with respect to 2023, 10% below its last five-year average.
In the USA, the fourth-largest wine producer globally, the preliminary estimate for 2024 wine production is 23.6 mhl. This figure is 3% lower compared to 2023 and 1% below its five-year average.
Georgia’s wine production in 2024 is anticipated to reach 2.4 mhl, marking a 27% increase from 2023 and 20% above its five-year average, representing the highest production level since the start of the century. This growth is attributed to favourable weather conditions across all key wine regions.
Southern Hemisphere
In the Southern Hemisphere, where the 2024 wine harvest concludes in the first half of the year, preliminary production estimates reveal a challenging vintage. After a record-high harvest in 2021, wine production has declined for three consecutive years, with the 2024 total estimated at 46 mhl : a 2% decrease from 2023 and 12% below the five-year average, marking the lowest production since 2004. This historically low output stems from significant climatic events across major wine-producing regions. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere’s 2024 wine production represents 20% of the world total, consistent with the past decade’s average.
In South America, Argentina is forecasted to produce 10.9 mhl in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery with a 23% increase from 2023, though still 4% below the five- year average. This increase comes after a challenging 2023 (8.8 mhl), impacted by severe spring frosts and hailstorms, and positions Argentina as the leading producer in the Southern Hemisphere for 2024. Chile is expected to produce 9.3 mhl, showing a significant 15% decrease from 2023 and 21% below the five-year average. This decline is attributed to a late harvest due to an unusually cool spring and to drought conditions in some wine regions. Brazil’s 2024 wine production is estimated at 2.7 mhl, marking a substantial 25% drop from 2023 and 5% below the five-year average, driven by excessive spring rainfall.
In South Africa, wine production for 2024 is projected at 8.8 mhl, marking a 5% decline from 2023 and 13% below the five-year average. The harvest faced multiple challenges, including frost, heavy winter rainfall, floods, and high winds. Notably, the extreme flooding in the Western Cape, estimated as a one-in-200-year event, alongside elevated disease pressure in certain areas, contributed significantly to the overall lower volume.
Australia’s wine production is estimated at 10.2 mhl in 2024, representing a slight 5% increase from 2023 but remaining 16% below the five-year average. The country continues to face challenges from excessive rainfall and inventory pressures.
New Zealand’s wine production is forecasted at 2.8 mhl, a notable 21% decline from 2023 and 13% below the five-year average, primarily attributable to Marlborough’s reduced harvest resulting from frost damage during the critical flowering period.
More information :
https://www.captcaruana.com/challenging-2024-for-champagne-houses-results-in-quality/
https://www.captcaruana.com/mazzei-zisola-is-now-organic-certified/
https://www.oiv.int/sites/default/files/documents/OIV_2024_World_Wine_Production_Outlook_1.pdf
https://www.oiv.int/
